What are the potential causes of incorrect predictions of tropical cyclone intensification in medium-range ensemble forecasts?

af Nico Bauer

Tropical cyclones (TC) are the most destructive weather phenomena in the world. These storm systems are common in large parts of highly populated tropics and subtropics with favorable atmospheric conditions. Society¿s vulnerability to them and the associated annual economic costs have risen steadily: mean worldwide insured losses averaged 75 billion USD per year in the 10 years between 2009 and 2019. Cinco et al. (2016) analyzed TC data and observed that in the period from 1951 to 2013, an avera... (Læs mere)